Bear Essentials February 27th: Mind the Gap!
February 27, 2026
California keeps setting its ambitions on hard mode: the inputs balloon — money, months, political oxygen — while the output stays theoretical. It’s a painful gap. Nowhere is that clearer than office-to-housing: Boston built a one-stop lane and is producing homes; San Francisco built a policy thicket and is producing… updates. The same mismatch haunts the Bay Area’s vanishing $100K paycheck, the state’s water plan bleeding millions per month in delay, and San Diego’s fight to unfreeze housing bound up by specious claims of historical significance. And in Indian Wells, even the cement has (weird) rules.
HUNDRED GRAND LARCENY — You might think that a six-figure salary is still a key benchmark for the American Dream. If you do, chances are you don’t live in San Francisco or Oakland. According to a recent Consumer Affairs survey to determine how far a $100,000 salary stretches in America’s 100 largest cities, Baghdad by the Bay and The Town rank 100 and 99, respectively. After adjusting for local costs, that “six-figure” paycheck delivers just $62,371 in real purchasing power, nearly $38,000 vanishing into thin air and/or usurious housing costs. San Francisco’s Regional Price Parity for housing sits at 200.2, meaning shelter costs about double the national average. California’s state income tax takes another bite — roughly $5,178 on a $100,000 income — though, in a rare display of restraint, the most expensive California cities don’t tack on local income taxes. It may be cold comfort, but there’s a whiff of easing: the Bay Area median home price fell to $1,127,000 in January 2026 (down 6.1% from December). It’s worth repeating: prices FELL to $1.13M. Cue the laugh track.
🤫 Everything you should know
💧 - DRY HARD WITH A VENGEANCE — California just set itself a thirsty homework assignment: find 9 million acre-feet of “new” water — enough to fill two Lake Shastas — by 2040, to patch the holes climate change is expected to punch in supplies. The state says hotter, drier conditions could throttle supplies by 10% by 2040, a dire backdrop to Governor Newsom’s launch of the 2028 Water Plan, mandated by SB 72. The plan maps out an ambitious menu: more storage, groundwater recharge, and supercharged conservation. The centerpiece of the plan is the agonizingly long-awaited Sites Reservoir, a $6.7bn offstream project backed by both Newsom and President Donald Trump and opposed by environmental groups worried about salmon and other endangered species. It’s already slipped from 2026 to 2027 as regulators sit on a water-rights permit. The project’s boss warned that “each month of delay… results in approximately $20 million per month” in extra costs. Commission leaders are looking for a mid-March permit to release roughly $1bn in Prop. 1 funding. — POLITICO
👋 - HISTORIC OBSTRUCTIONISM IS HISTORY — San Diego continues its streak of making refreshingly adult decisions. This week, it stopped letting “historic preservation” function as a free, unaccountable veto on housing. On Monday, the City Council approved the first “Preservation and Progress” reforms (5–1, with Council President Joe LaCava the lone “no”), giving residents a clear right to appeal historic designations to the council and giving the council more discretion to overturn the Historic Resources Board. That matters because thousands of properties sit under strict demolition and renovation rules that critics say have been “weaponized” in the city’s most desirable neighborhoods. “This City Council is held accountable for the decisions that it makes,” said Councilmember Stephen Whitburn, countering opponents' claims of process politicization. Next up: summer hearings on a second package, including possible changes to the Mills Act tax-break program. — KPBS
🏗️ - LOST IN CONVERSION — Boston and San Francisco launched office-to-housing conversion programs at the same post-pandemic panic point. Three years later, Boston is converting buildings; San Francisco is converting talking points. Since 2023, Boston has logged 22 applications to turn 1.25 million sq ft of offices into 1,517 homes, turbocharged by Mayor Michelle Wu’s 75% property-tax abatement for 29 years and a ruthlessly simple system: “We have one point of contact… It’s truly one stop. John is that one person to call.” San Francisco has cut fees, relaxed zoning, and even ditched affordable-housing and transfer-tax requirements—yet not one project has started construction. A 124-unit deal at 785 Market stalled for financing; another Market Street conversion was foreclosed. SF finally created a financing district last week, promising roughly $100,000 per unit over 30 years, covering 518 buildings (about 50 good candidates) for a theoretical 4,400 units — assuming costs, seismic upgrades, and interest rates ever stop throwing punches. The Chronicle’s JK Dineen explores the tale of two cities. — SF Chronicle
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🎙️ 💬 🎧 - ON THE POD: NAPA-SONOMA LIVE
Napa Sonoma Live turns Napa Sonoma magazine into audio you can drink to. Executive Editor Laura Levy Shatkin and Boisset Collection proprietor Jean-Charles Boisset pry the best stories out of wine-country royalty—winemakers, chefs, artisans—then point you to what’s worth seeing, sipping, and savoring. No tasting-room script.— Napa-Sonoma Live
👮 🙅 📃 - MEANWHILE, IN INDIAN WELLS…
Image credit: ChatGPT
Indian Wells passed an ordinance banning the inhaling, breathing, or drinking of “intoxicating” cement, glue, adhesives, mucilage, dope, and similar materials—because apparently someone treated Home Depot like a cocktail bar. The only exception: if a licensed doctor prescribes it. Nothing says “wellness” like medically supervised mortar consumption.
🏃♂️ 💨 ✋ FAST FIVE
- 📉 Sacramento mayor says downtown homeless population down 70%. SacBee
- 🤖 What ChatGPT thinks about San Francisco. Axios
- 🏃♂️ Poll: Five frontrunners emerge in California governor’s race. PPIC
- 😑 New Trump anti-fraud task force to target California. Reuters
- 🍎 Finally: A decoder for California’s school data dashboard. CalMatters
